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Crystal ball - aka which router is likely gonna make it for a while

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Phantomski

Regular Contributor
Apologies for bit of a clickbaity headline. I was looking into new models for myself, also friend asked me for a recommendation so I was trying to figure out if the one I have (AX88U Pro) is still a valid recommendation and it got me through all sorts of rabbit holes and spreadsheeting 😂

But mainly it got me thinking. I know it's difficult to say and there are many factors at play, but overall, in more of a broad brush strokes - what goes into choosing which model makes it so to speak onto the Merlin's list of supported models? Or even in more general sense, what makes it onto Asus internal list (well apart from 'it sells well')?

While it might sound like a stupid question (I was always told there's no such thing as a stupid question :)), just please hear me out. I'm genuinely interested in the process of selecting which particular router is worth investing time in for Asus, for Merlin and ultimately, what makes it the model that is worth recommending and stands the test of time. I know, consumer routers, 2-3 years, 5 if you're lucky. Who cares, buy one, next year will be different. I get it. But still, there are reasons why some specific routers (AC68U, AC86U, AX86U, AX88U Pro, ...) are better choice and more preferred by people here than others. Why they got on Merlin's desk, he had a play, said 'hmmm, that's interesting, worth my time' and the rest is history?

So, if I can kindly ask you - what exactly goes into the selection process - what are the challenges that make a particular router difficult to support or unsupported model and conversely - what makes it a long term success?

1. Is it the CPU?
Since the actual relevant lineup of BCM4906, 08, 12 and 16 are basically some variation of ARMv8 Cortex-B53 cores with various networking "bolt ons" I would assume, this part could be relatively easy - but is it? Is it easy to port the code from 4906 all the way to 4916 and it just "runs faster" or is better hw accelerated, or does it still rely on SDK from Broadcom, proprietary closed source code, Asus being helpful, information that's hard to get, etc?

2. Is it the SoC comms processor?
Now this I always thought is the secret sauce that is hard to dig deep into, because that's the competitive advantage, so companies get secretive and obstructive. Some SoCs are a paper success, but then don't quite stack up in real life. Some are average, but very stable and popular. Which are those that so far stood the test of time and why? Is the SoC the main stumbling block in terms of making it into supported models list? Is it as simple as Broadcom provides a blob to ASUS, they implement it into FW, Merlin if he's lucky gets it to incorporate into the custom FW and that's about as much as can be influenced along the line?

3. Is it as "simple" as having a clear line of communication with relevant parties so the final Merlin's FW can be developed, tested and produced and because that's hard or even impossible for the above combinations of CPU/SoC, the model gets dropped or even is a non-starter in the first place?

4. Or even simpler reason - only model Merlin gets his hands on is evaluated and if all of the above works, makes it onto the list?

5. All of the above?

6. How does GT-BE98 Pro with its all new chipset fit into all this? :)

I don't want you to spend too much of your precious time trying to elaborate on all of those. Maybe it's a simple explanation, maybe not. But I think it could be also a helpful insight for people here searching for recommendations into what makes a model a good relatively future proof choice. Basically some models stood the test of time. Just because they sell well is an easy answer, but why they sell well?

Thanks.
 
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... what goes into choosing which model makes it so to speak onto the Merlin's list of supported models?
This is addressed/answered in the [FAQ] READ ME FIRST before posting a question forum stick/tacked post:
Q: Will you add support for model XYZ?
A: The decision whether or not to support a new model depend on a long list of factors, which may evolve over time. Right now:

- It needs to be Broadcom-based
- It needs to be widely available (not just in two or three countries)
- It needs to have high-end hardware so I don't have to fight with lack of flash or RAM
- It needs to receive frequent enough GPLs so I won't have to regularly skip it due to the GPL being outdated
- I need to have one
- I need to have the time to try supporting it
- I need to have the motivation to try supporting it

Each new model requires its own dedicated support. That means every time I work on a new firmware release, I have to work on each separate model, and I need GPL releases from Asus for each individual model, and I need to merge each of them separately. So that means if I support 10 different routers, then I need to merge in the content of 10 different GPL releases, and these need to be close enough to one another to still be compatible. The more models I support, the harder this is to accomplish, therefore I am VERY conservative regarding adding any new model.

So don't ask if/when a new model will be supported. I cannot speculate about future model support, and until I have working support for a model, I cannot answer that question.
And from the Asus-Merlin.com Wiki FAQ page:
Q: Will you support router "RT-xXX" from Asus?
A: Most likely not. Without having an actual router to test with, building a firmware that people would flash without me having at least confirmed it can be flashed at all would be far too risky.
A bit more from Rmerlin on why only certain models are supported with the 3006.102.1/2 firmware here:

PS: There are probably half a dozen or maybe even a dozen or more past posts from people asking similar questions on how long a router will be supported by Asus, or why only certain routers have Asus-Merlin support. See the forum search to find those various past discussions.

RMerlin has indicated that the 386.x firmware for the AC series of routers most or all of which are End of Support by Asus will likely be ended by the end of 2024.
Well it seems Asus changed their own plans. A few weeks ago I was told they planned to keep supporting the RT-AC68U for a while longer, and now they just added it to the End of Life list. I updated the first post accordingly.

So for all 386 models, I will probably try to get one final GPL update from them, after which I will limit myself to fixes and component updates, probably until the end of 2024.
The GT-BE98 Pro is currently supported by Asus-Merlin 3006.102.x firmware.
 
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I think this is largely influenced by Asus.

RMerlin has to have the will to do it, then Asus will send him the required hardware and software, and then the magic will happen.

If Asus or RMerlin loses the will to continue supporting it, but more likely Asus, then it will die.

For Asus, the models with the highest sales and better hardware always get the most care. In order to sell the most, its pricing shouldn't be too crazy, but the hardware can't be too bad (sad for the MediaTek series).
 
This is addressed/answered in the [FAQ] READ ME FIRST before posting a question forum stick/tacked post:

And from the Asus-Merlin.com Wiki FAQ page:
Thank you for your time and patience linking it all in. I thought I've searched and read through what I could, but sadly FAQ eluded me. Getting old...

A lot of it makes sense of course.

The question wasn't meant to try to establish routers to fixate on for whatever reason. I've made my choices throughout the years (AC66U, AC88U, AX88U Pro) and I was always happy with them, thanks largely to Merlin's unwavering support for which I am immensely grateful. I was just trying to explain my thought processes from some months ago to a friend of mine who's struggling to understand the unbelievable mess that is ASUS Wireless routers website and I have realised I'm just lacking reasoning for them. How to justify which ones are worth looking into and why it might be worth taking Merlin's FW into account. Hence the curiosity about the general decision making process that goes into each FW release.
 
So I would put together a list of choices like this:

- Is it an Asus mid-to-high-end router?​
- Is it one of the top 3 selling mid-to-high-end routers of its generation?​
- Does it meet the checklist of RMerlin support principles?​
Thanks, this is the best checklist so far.
 
As per RMerlin AX Pro models are low priority and he never requested Asuswrt 5.0 GPL. This means - must be BE-class device. At this point I think there are better price/quality alternatives on the market. This marketing strategy cash big money first and then help us to beta test overcomplicated Asuswrt will backfire. Current GT-AXE16000 and ZenWiFi ET12 owners will think twice before ordering Asus latest and greatest again.
 
As per RMerlin AX Pro models are low priority and he never requested Asuswrt 5.0 GPL.
@Phantomski, to add some context to what Tech9 has indicated; in case you didn't see RMerlin's recent posts starting on page 5 in the New models to be introduced with 3006.102.2 discussion.
Since updated 3006 GPLs are constantly being delayed, I decided to go ahead and release 3006.102.2 based on the existing GPLs. For the RT-BE88U and RT-BE86U this means they will both be released based on different GPLs from the rest (3006.102.33921 for the RT-BE88U, and 3006.102.36216 for the RT-BE86U).

Neither of these are compatible with the 34369 binary blobs, so other Wifi 7 models will remain on 34369, until there are updated 3006 GPLs for them (which hopefully would be for 3006.102.3).
When asked about AX Pro models support in that thread.
No news. Moving them to 3006 is still a low priority.
And a follow up to a reply on that quoted post indicating it still be low priority for the AX Pro models.
I currently have 24 different models accross three separate code branches to deal with. I have to prioritize.

3004 is more stable and reliable than 3006 at this time, so getting Wifi 6 Pro models to 3006 is very low on my priority list. The Wifi 7 models are more in need of updates because of the numerous bugs that currently exist. Updating 388 GPLs comes next, as these haven't received an update in many months.

These are routers, not toys. Stability is more important than new features that did not exist when these models launched. Especially when these new features are still seriously bugged.
When asked if Asus shared 3006 GPL for AX Pro models this was his response.
I haven`t asked them for it, but I think they did publish the GT-AX6000 GPL on their website.

I only asked Asus for Wifi 7 3006 GPLs (which got delayed twice already, so I decided to move on to other plans for now) and 3004 GPL (which is going to come first, but with no ETA).

So with all of these delays/no ETA, my focus is currently on 3006.102.2 to add at least basic support for the RT-BE88U and RT-BE86U, and to fix multiple issues that existed in 3006.102.1.
So see pages 5 and 6 of the link for additional discussion.

Things are what they are as indicated by RMerlin with Asus-Merlin 3006 support. At this time if you are looking at an AX Pro series router and want the 3006 firmware features then look to using Asus stock 3006.x firmware if available until RMerlin provides additional future guidance on the status of Asus-Merlin 3006. If you want 3006 Asus-Merlin support (such as it is) now, then look to using RT-BE96U (3006.102.1), GT-BE98 PRO (3006.102.1), RT-BE88U (3006.102.2 Alpha), RT-BE86U (3006.102.2 Alpha) or GT-BE98 (GNuton). Otherwise look to other models/manufacturers that meet your needs, desire, or use case.
 
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You're right. There's a reason why I gave AXE16000 and AX11000 Pro a pass, despite being quite tempting. Like someone said, these devices are for a few years (I am averaging about 5) and there's no reason to spend extra future proofing when the future is kinda not happening.

BE98 Pro is slightly different case, since it really is almost all trick pony and WiFi7 stuff aside, it's pretty capable device. But still, so far it doesn't move the needle for me. Unless AX88U Pro really never ever sees 5.0 GPL. Then it's gonna be a battle between BE98 (or future Merlin supported equivalent) and sadly - Unify or pfSense + APs and bye bye Asus world 😥
 
Unless AX88U Pro really never ever sees 5.0 GPL.
For now one can use the stock ASUS RT-AX88U Pro Firmware version 3.0.0.6.102_33320 (2024/09/27) if they want to try out (i.e. essentially be a beta tester for) ASUSWRT 5.0 features. PS:
 
@Phantomski, to add some context to what Tech9 has indicated; in case you didn't see RMerlin's recent posts starting on page 5 in the New models to be introduced with 3006.102.2 discussion.
I was just reading through those threads. Pretty understandable.

I am not in a massive rush for 3006. VLANs would sort a lot of my issues and help me massively to organise my stuff better, but since I still didn't have a time to migrate from AC88U to AX88U Pro after best part of a year since I've bought it, there's still a lot to do before I start planning the new infrastructure.
 
You may want to take a look at OpenWrt. GL.iNet GL-MT6000 is currently £103 on Amazon UK, £113 - £10 coupon. It runs OpenWrt based firmware and can run vanilla OpenWrt. Many packages available. Similar to your AX88U Pro hardware.
 
You may want to take a look at OpenWrt. GL.iNet GL-MT6000 is currently £103 on Amazon UK, £113 - £10 coupon. It runs OpenWrt based firmware and can run vanilla OpenWrt. Many packages available. Similar to your AX88U Pro hardware.
Purpose built Open Source router, hmmm. Never heard of them, but very interesting. Thanks!
 
Not really purposely built, most GL.iNet routers run OpenWrt base firmware.
 

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